How will the steel market structure evolve after t

2022-06-23
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How will the steel market structure evolve after the May Day holiday

"during the May Day holiday, the price of deformed steel bars (3727, 153.00, 4.28%) rose by 4100, and building materials are about to rise. After the holiday, the probability of futures will rise with the spot." Another market participant in the circle of friends

can the steel price rise again after the "silver IV"? Will the price in the second quarter be better than that in the first quarter

according to the latest data, during the week from April 23 to 29, steel prices in the domestic market continued to rise. In the first half of the week, local spot prices were consolidated at a high level, and high-level transactions in some regions were weak. However, in the second half of the week, with the fermentation of environmental protection and production restriction in Jiangsu, the overall market confidence was good. At the same time, there was still a demand for replenishment in the downstream before the festival, the trading volume was still at a high level in the year, the steel inventory continued to decline, and the steel price maintained a volatile upward trend

on April 28, the average price of HRB400 (20mm) deformed steel bars in 25 major cities in China was 4102 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton on a weekly basis. Among them, the weekly increase in Fuzhou and Wuhan markets exceeded 200 yuan/ton, and the weekly increase in most cities exceeded 100 yuan/ton

demand recovery + continuous inventory decline + policy dividend

in early April, the snail began to bottom out and rise, and the process was a little painful and repeated. In mid April, with the introduction of various favorable policies such as reserve requirement reduction, environmental protection, capacity reduction and xiong'an new area planning, the opening of the steel market gradually came out of the haze, and prices continued to pick up

analysts believe that under the background of policy dividends, steel prices will still be strong and volatile in the short term. In his view, this round of rebound came out under the background of gradual recovery of demand and continuous decline of inventory, combined with comprehensive factors such as frequent policy warm wind and tight resources in the regional market due to maintenance of steel mills

on April 20, the national development and Reform Commission announced the notice on doing a good job in resolving excess capacity in key areas in 2018, reiterating the determination to eliminate capacity, emphasizing that the goal of resolving excess capacity in steel in 2018 is to withdraw about 30million tons of crude steel capacity, consolidate the results of resolving excess capacity in steel, prohibit new capacity, and prevent the resurgence of "ground bar" and the resumption of resolved excess capacity. Zhouyaochen believes that this is the deepening of the national supply side reform, and the determination and strength to reduce production capacity will not be weakened

liuzhenjiang, party secretary and Secretary General of CISA, once said that the start of steel prices this year is relatively slow, and there will be some room for steel prices to rise, but there will be little change. It is expected that the prices in the second quarter will be better than those in the first quarter

in April, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry was 51.4%, slightly lower than that of the previous month by 0.1%. Among them, the production index was 53.1%, unchanged from the previous month; The new order index was 52.9%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. On the whole, the manufacturing industry still shows a steady growth trend

in April, the business activity index of the construction industry was 60.6%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; The new order index of the construction industry was 55.6%, up 3.6 percentage points from the previous month. On the whole, the construction industry remained in the high prosperity range, and the expansion power was enhanced, and the market continued to improve

in May, the game in the steel market may intensify, and the key point of the trend of terminal demand in the later stage is

according to the news, in late April, the downstream construction sites of the spot market were fully started, the demand was obviously warmer, and the trading volume fluctuated again. Some steel mills' output has declined rather than increased due to shutdown. The relationship between supply and demand has been further improved. The steel inventory has continued to decline, and some market resources and specifications have been cut off. Shenyibing, the chief analyst, believes that the short-term tight resource pattern continues, and the steel price may fluctuate strongly next week

"the focus of the short-term game of the steel market is that the supply side still maintains high profits, there are signs of tightening environmental protection, destocking in the peak season and the expected terminal demand in the May June rainy season turn from strong to weak." Hanfei, a senior black researcher at Cinda futures, said that in the short term, on the one hand, the current inventory of steel mills is not high, and even some of them lack specifications. Environmental protection is waiting for further fermentation; On the other hand, the demand in the North has been released one after another, some parts of East China are in the rush period, and the social Treasury has been smoothly removed; The overall supply and demand maintained a relatively healthy trend

from the point of view of spot and recent months, the support of low inventory in the steel plant is strong, and shows the willingness to slowly pull up. Under the recent macro expectation transformation (the monetary aspect is transformed into "guiding the steady and moderate growth of monetary credit and social financing scale", and the demand aspect is transformed into "accelerating the structural adjustment, continuously expanding domestic demand, and maintaining the stable operation of the macro economy"), the long-term high base difference has maintained a relatively strong shock structure in the near future

in terms of time, the plum rain season will come in the middle of May, which is the time switching window for terminal demand to turn from strong to weak. At that time, it will depend on whether the environmental protection expectation can be further fermented

"at present, environmental protection has become more strict in some areas of Jiangsu and steel mills. If environmental protection is tightened again in the later stage, it will add weight to the bull pattern with strong shock. The view of strong shock will still be maintained until the middle of May." Han Fei said

wangjianhua, chief analyst, believes that the steel market will intensify the game between expectation and reality in May. Only by further improving the fundamentals or even exceeding expectations, can we enhance market confidence and open up further room for steel prices to rise. Wang Jianhua reminded investors to be vigilant against the fluctuation risk of rising and falling due to the suppression of short funds in the financial market

"in the medium and long term, as the national steel price approaches the high level in the year, the downstream coal resources are becoming increasingly weak due to the pressure of funds, and the willingness to purchase is weakened. The trading volume in May is facing the risk of decline." Shenyibing believes that the steel plant has a high enthusiasm for production in the second quarter, and the output of key steel enterprises in non heating seasons will rise significantly. Once the production restriction measures in Xuzhou and other places are ended, the supply and demand fundamentals will be under pressure again, and the risk of high and falling steel prices will be on guard

"with the continuous development of the production restriction policy, the short-term trend of thread may be strongly boosted. In the later stage, the supply and demand of the steel market will face a situation of one increase and one decrease." Analysts said that the screw thread Market is currently at the best stage of supply and demand. The demand pulse caused by the delayed commencement of the construction site is difficult to continue for a long time, while the supply level is still rising gradually. There is a great possibility that the crude steel output will reach a new high in the second quarter. In the short term, the time for trend short selling of rebar has not come, and the real pressure may come in late May. At that time, the steel price and yingb3 (flammable building materials): there is no flame retardant effect. It is expected that the new sustainable materials that help ultralight aircraft complete their tasks will be widely used in ordinary supplies. They will face downward pressure and still need to wait patiently

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